Sermon


FORESIGHT SHAPING A GOOD FUTURE

Psalm 50:1-8, 22-23; Luke 12:49-56


The passage from Luke seems to be about weather forecasting.
Jesus said, ‘When you see a cloud appear in the west, you say at once that it’s going to rain, and it does. And when you feel the south wind blowing, you say it’s going to be hot (northern hemisphere), and it is . . . You know how to interpret the look of the earth and the sky. Why can’t you interpret the meaning of the times you’re living in?’
This is part of a bigger section that sounds ominous, as though there are tough times ahead. It may refer to mounting hostility in some quarters; perhaps even the end time. Whatever this is, Jesus says, “Pay attention to what’s happening around you; understand what it means and where it’s leading.” I want to talk about ‘foresight’ as a teaching of Jesus (and the prophets). But first, ten famous predictions: famous because they were so wide of the mark.
  • "Inventions have long since reached their limit, and I see no hope for further developments." (Roman engineer Julius Sextus Frontinus, 10)
  • "That's an amazing invention, but who would ever want to use one of them?" (US President Hayes to Alexander Graham Bell, 1876)
  • "Daily toil [in the next century] will be shortened to four or five hours." (US Senator Peffer of Kansas, 1893)
  • "It doesn't matter what he does, he will never amount to anything." (Albert Einstein's teacher speaking to 16-year-old Albert's father, 1895)
  • "Heavier than air flying machines are impossible." (Scottish physicist Lord Kelvin, 1895)
  • "The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; the average American family hasn't time for it." (New York Times after a demonstration at the 1939 World's Fair)
  • "The Japanese don't make anything the people in the US would want" (Secretary of State John Foster Dulles, 1954)
  • "Despite the trend to compactness and lower costs, it is unlikely everyone will have his own computer any time soon." (Stanley Penn of The Wall Street Journal, 1966)
  • "We just won't have arthritis in 2000." (Dr William Clark, President of the Arthritis Foundation, 1966)
  • "By the turn of this century, we will live in a paperless society." (Roger Smith, Chairman of General Motors, 1986)
To these add that Luke and his colleagues in the Jesus movement confidently forecast the Lord's return. It is interesting how Christians have dealt with the failure of that one, made at regular intervals since Luke. Today's reading is not about weather, of course. It refers to something ‘catastrophic’ you might say. Luke has Jesus saying that if you can read the signs, you can infer what the future holds. Three questions . . .

I

First is "Can you?" Well, of course you can. A graphic illustration of the fact that we can forecast disaster is the consequence in Iraq of depleted uranium usage. During the Gulf War more than 300 tonnes of depleted uranium (DU) were dropped on the deserts of Kuwait and southern Iraq. And more in the 2003 invasion. DU is an extremely hard radioactive substance used to coat missiles, bullets and tanks. A cheap by-product of the use of uranium for other purposes, it provides such a hard coating for tanks that they are virtually impenetrable. DU-coated missiles could penetrate Iraqi tanks, though. They then exploded, burning at a very high temperature, and disintegrating into fine radioactive dust particles. These particles have entered not only the air but also the soil and water, polluting the environment for years to come.

A major effect of this material being ingested has been a massive increase in birth defects and in childhood cancers. It is now possible to predict with a high degree of confidence that Iraq will for many years register an abnormal – and rising – incidence of both from this material being spread abroad in the atmosphere. And there's nothing that can alter the fact!

Here's another, regularly drawn to our notice. The world’s orangutan population is in terminal decline. Sumatra and Borneo are now the only places where they can be found in the wild. Despite their protected status, logging, poaching and environmental degradation put the future of orangutans in peril. Unless the current trend is reversed, they will be extinct by 2020. This leads us into a second question . . .

II

"What if we get it wrong?" One of the futurists has written, "A prediction that does not come true is not necessarily a bad prediction. For instance, predictions that have foretold environmental catastrophe may be avoided in the long run because of those very predictions." Here's a quirky example. It is the transcript of a radio conversation between a US navy ship and Canadian authorities off the coast of Newfoundland in October ’95.
Americans: Please divert your course 15º to the north to avoid collision.
Canadians: Recommend you divert your course 15º south to avoid collision.
Americans: This is a US Navy ship. I say again, divert your course.
Canadians: No, I say again, divert your course.
Americans: This is the aircraft carrier USS Lincoln, the second largest ship in the US Atlantic Fleet. We are accompanied by three destroyers and numerous support vessels. I demand that you change your course by 15º north, or counter measures will be taken to ensure the safety of this ship.
Canadians: We are a light house. Your call . . .
Many predictions about environmental damage, endangered species and so on are a bit like this. The fate of the orangutans is of similar order, although not the fate of children in Iraq! Those who make these predictions are saying, "Keep on in the direction you are pursuing, and such-and-such will happen." That's how the prophets delivered their warnings. "But we would like to think you will change direction in time, so that our prediction is not fulfilled."

The point is that every policy, every action has consequences – sometimes unexpected, but often foreseeable to those with foresight. A case in point. One day a priest was out for a stroll, and saw a wee boy trying to press a doorbell. He watched the lad’s efforts, and then walked. He rested a hand on the little chap's shoulder and gave the doorbell a good firm push. Then he bent down to the boy's eye level, with a benevolent smile on his face, and said, "What now, little man?" "Now, Father, we have to run like hell!"

III

Third question is "What price foresight?" Rick Slaughter, a good friend when I was Chaplain at Melbourne University, and who became Foundation Professor of Foresight at Swinburne University, says, "Everyone applies the foresight principle in their daily lives. We check the weather before leaving home . . . Foresight raises no major problems at the individual level because it is part of the standard mental equipment of most normal people and its utility is unquestioned. But foresight at the social level is more problematic."

Here’s what I see as a very graphic illustration. At the end of World War I, Germany was stripped of colonies, military and industrial power, and was required to pay reparations. The monarchy collapsed, and it became a republic. When the first president died, Field Marshal von Hindenburg succeeded him. The people bitterly resented the peace terms. Ex military officers supported Adolf Hitler, head of the National Socialist Workers party (Nazi). He drew followers by promising a return to past glory, and by blaming Germany's troubles on the Jews. In 1933 von Hindenberg made him chancellor. When von Hindenburg died in '34, Hitler became Fuhrer.

Germany was now called the Third Reich (empire). Hitler established a one party government. Those who failed to conform or who criticised him went to concentration camps. Local self-government was ended. Mines and businesses were nationalized. Persecution of Jews, Catholics and minority groups was rife. Hitler made military training compulsory, and increased the army to over five times what was permitted by the Versailles Treaty. And nobody did anything.

In 1938 he poured troops into Austria and took it without bloodshed. Then followed part of Czechoslovakia. World War II started in '39 when his armies marched into Poland. Although on top at first, Germany finally met crushing defeat, and surrendered in May ‘45. It was stripped of its conquests and partitioned into four zones. Its industry was dismantled, its armies demobilized. It is still haunted by what happened in the 30s and 40s. These were the people who gave us Bach, Mozart, Beethoven and Brahms, not to mention scientists and philosophers. This is where the Reformation began. It was the home of European high culture. Where was the 'foresight'?

The general populace were either unaware of the likely outcomes of Nazism or persuaded by the propaganda machine of Dr Goebbels. We are asked to believe that masses of Germans were unaware what was going on around them. Some of the loudest protests came from church leaders. Paul Tillich was dismissed from his university post in 1933, and left. Karl Barth was expelled from the country in 1935. In 1937 Martin Niemoller was put in a concentration camp, where he stayed until 1945. Dietrich Bonhoeffer was hanged by the Gestapo in 1945.

"Oh Jerusalem, Jerusalem! You kill the prophets and stone the messengers God has sent you!
" (Matthew 23:37)

I mentioned Rick Slaughter. For twenty years Rick, now in Queensland, has been pressing for ways to get the general populace thinking about the future, before it is too late. Rick grew up in church, but has left it. Yet he writes and speaks in some ways like an old testament prophet, calling on people to develop their foresight faculty, and to challenge policies that are driven by short-sighted economic motivation, and blinkered to possible long-term consequences. You and I need to select representatives with foresight, who see beyond the next election. All the big issues – forest conservation, water resources, climate change – are reminders of this. Foresight is a teaching of Jesus.




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An address presented by the Rev Dr John Bodycomb at St Aidan's Uniting Church North Balwyn, on 19th August, 2007

IT MAY BE REPRODUCED WITH ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF AUTHORSHIP.






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Page updated  21/08/07